iGaming Brand Analysis: Kalshi

Kalshi is a U.S.-based prediction market platform where users make forecasts on real-world events, from Federal Reserve decisions to World Cup matches, and earn money if their prediction is correct. The platform has been operating since 2021 and is regulated in the U.S. by the CFTC, the federal regulator overseeing derivatives exchanges. Kalshi is registered as an exchange, so it does not obtain gambling licenses that are mandatory for sportsbooks. Authorities in some U.S. states and regulators in several other countries disagree with this interpretation and view Kalshi as an unlicensed betting service.

What It Offers

🔵 Yes/No contracts on specific questions across politics, economics, sports, crypto, weather, and culture

🔵 Each contract costs less than $1: the more likely participants believe an event is to happen, the higher the price

🔵 A correct prediction pays $1 per contract, while an incorrect one pays nothing; positions can also be sold before the event is resolved

🔵 Users trade with one another, while Kalshi earns revenue through commissions

🔵 Before making the first trade, every user must complete full identity verification, while crypto platforms such as Polymarket often only require users to connect a wallet

Traffic and Engagement Metrics (August 2026)

🔴 14.36M visits – total traffic (-25.82% MoM)

🔴 13:33 min – average session duration

🔴 11.34 – pages per visit

🔴 31.7% – bounce rate

🔴 43% – mobile share

Top 5 Countries:

🇺🇸 United States – 78.8%

🇨🇦 Canada – 2.1%

🇵🇪 Peru – 1.5%

🇬🇧 United Kingdom – 1.3%

🇦🇺 Australia – 1.1%

Traffic Sources

🔵 Direct – 61%

🔵 Organic – 24%

🔵 Social – 4%

🔵 Referral – 4%

🔵 Paid – 5%

Business Scale

🔴 In May 2026, Kalshi raised $1 billion, valuing the company at $22 billion – twice its valuation in December 2025

🔴 According to Kalshi, at its current run rate the company is on track to generate more than $1.5 billion annually – almost six times the $263.5 million generated in all of 2025

🔴 According to the same data, trading volume increased 3.4x over six months, while volume from investment funds and trading firms grew 9x

🔴 Among prediction markets legally operating in the U.S., Kalshi accounts for more than 80% of trading volume. International crypto platforms are not included in this figure

Sports Partnerships

🔵 During the 2026 World Cup, Kalshi sponsored Argentina’s national team and the Croatian Football Federation, while Luka Modrić became the face of its advertising campaigns

🔵 According to Kalshi, 3 million new users joined the platform during the World Cup, while users spent more than $1.2 billion on contracts predicting the tournament winner

🔵 Since 2026, Kalshi has been the official prediction market partner of the US Open; trading volume in tennis contracts on the platform increased 25x year over year

Legal Status

🔴 In the U.S., Kalshi argues that its sports contracts are financial products and therefore are not subject to state gambling laws

🔴 Federal courts have issued conflicting rulings: in April, one court sided with Kalshi in its dispute with New Jersey authorities, while in August another court, in a case involving Nevada regulators, classified its sports contracts as betting. New Jersey authorities have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review the dispute

🔴 One of the judges in the Nevada case pointed to an apparent contradiction: in its advertising, Kalshi had described itself as the first app offering legal sports betting across all 50 states

🔴 Outside the U.S., Kalshi has accepted users from around 140 countries since October 2025, mostly without local licenses

🔴 In 2026, authorities in Brazil and Spain blocked access to the platform, while Kalshi voluntarily exited India; overall, the service is unavailable in 55 countries and territories

Conclusion

Kalshi’s most visible marketing strategy is sports-focused: national teams, tournaments, and 3 million new users acquired during the World Cup. At the same time, sports contracts are precisely the area in which U.S. courts have issued conflicting rulings. If the Supreme Court ultimately supports the position taken by Nevada regulators, Kalshi’s sports contracts could become subject to gambling laws on a state-by-state basis, effectively placing them under conditions similar to those faced by traditional sportsbooks.