“Near Misses” in Slots: Your Brain Doesn’t Care Whether You Won or Lost

The iGaming industry continues to grow every year, even though the mathematical expectation for casino players is negative-and many players are aware of this. The question is why people keep playing-and whether it is possible to make even losing feel enjoyable.

A 2024 Italian study cited by Pepper Partners shows that, in addition to winning and losing, slots have a third outcome with its own distinct emotional response: the “near miss.” The slot forms a winning combination on three reels, slows down on the fourth, and stops on a losing symbol, shattering the expectation of a win. This moment triggers a complex mix of conflicting emotions.

Physical Response

🔵 When the share of near misses increased to 30% of all outcomes, participants wagered significantly more money during the gaming session.

🔵 During a near miss, participants’ heart rates slowed in the same way as after a real win, indicating a similar emotional response.

🔵 Skin conductance data showed that even after the reel stopped on a losing symbol, participants maintained a heightened emotional state similar to the excitement caused by winning.

Brain Activity

🔴 The same areas of the brain were activated during both actual wins and near misses.

🔴 A separate Portuguese study indicates that these included the ventral striatum and the rostral anterior cingulate cortex—areas involved in reinforcing positive responses.

What This Means for Operators

🔵 Awareness of how casino mechanics work does not, by itself, reduce players’ interest in gambling.

🔵 Since wins and near misses trigger similar reactions, this effect can be taken into account when designing the user experience.

Conclusion

Players may understand that casinos have a negative mathematical expectation, yet they continue to play because their bodies and brains respond strongly to game outcomes. Therefore, researchers place responsibility for players’ emotional well-being on operators.