Everyone remembers the scandal before the last British elections, where a group of parliamentarians placed bets on the outcome. But what about political betting on the largest market in the world—the United States?
📈 In the early 20th century, the most active American trading floors weren’t those for stocks or bonds. The real action was in betting on the next president. People would gather in the financial district, and brokers would shout out bets just like in securities trading. Usually, people guessed the outcomes correctly: from 1884 to 1940, the favorite won 11 out of 15 times, with only one major upset. Even sociologists were wrong more often.
👑 Political betting markets in America almost disappeared after World War II due to crackdowns on gambling and the rise of political polling. Today, they are mostly illegal, with a few exceptions like a cryptocurrency exchange on Ethereum and non-profit exchanges created for data collection, such as the Polymarket platform. Let’s look at the numbers.
📈 $20,800,000 — that's how much Polymarket clients have wagered on U.S. President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, with the bookmaker estimating the probability at 83%. On the same platform, $44 million has been bet on Trump’s victory, $25 million on Harris, and $22 million on Michelle Obama, who isn’t even running. As of the end of June, a total of $341,915,903 had been bet on the election, and this amount is expected to grow.
Imagine if someone had bet on Harris back in April—they’d be raking in the money now!
👑 Political betting markets in America almost disappeared after World War II due to crackdowns on gambling and the rise of political polling. Today, they are mostly illegal, with a few exceptions like a cryptocurrency exchange on Ethereum and non-profit exchanges created for data collection, such as the Polymarket platform. Let’s look at the numbers.
📈 $20,800,000 — that's how much Polymarket clients have wagered on U.S. President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, with the bookmaker estimating the probability at 83%. On the same platform, $44 million has been bet on Trump’s victory, $25 million on Harris, and $22 million on Michelle Obama, who isn’t even running. As of the end of June, a total of $341,915,903 had been bet on the election, and this amount is expected to grow.
Imagine if someone had bet on Harris back in April—they’d be raking in the money now!