"Near Misses" in Slots: The More Control Players Have, the Stronger the Effect

23.07.2026
Pepper Partners continues its series of studies on how players react to slot outcomes. Previous research focused on physiological responses: heart rate and EEG data showed that there are two types of near misses and that training players' perception can change their level of engagement.

The latest stage demonstrates that the brain processes the same outcome differently depending on whether the player selected the bet themselves or it was set automatically.
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Research Method and Design
🔵 fMRI, or functional magnetic resonance imaging, measures brain activity through changes in blood flow and oxygen levels. Compared with EEG, it can more precisely identify which brain regions are activated at the moment an outcome occurs
🔵 40 participants played 60 rounds each on a two-reel slot simulator
🔵 In half of the rounds, players selected the bet size themselves; in the other half, the bet was set automatically
🔵 After each round, participants rated their expectation of winning, satisfaction with the outcome, and desire to continue playing

What the Brain Data Showed
🔴 Wins and near misses activated the same brain regions: the ventral striatum, right anterior insula, and rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC)
🔴 EEG studies had already shown that near misses can feel similar to wins, but they measured overall brain activity. fMRI identified the specific regions involved
🔴 The effect disappeared when the near miss occurred before the winning line had been determined

The Role of Personal Choice
🔵 The desire to continue playing after a near miss was stronger when players had selected the bet themselves
🔵 Choosing the bet personally increased activity in the rACC, a region associated with motivation and decision-making
🔵 When the bet was set automatically, the same near-miss outcome produced a weaker response

What This Means for Operators
🔴 Allowing players to choose their own bet size is a manageable interface feature that can directly influence engagement through the near-miss effect
🔴 Slots that set the bet automatically and do not offer this option may not be using the full engagement potential of this mechanic

Conclusion

The more actions players perform themselves—choosing the bet and confirming it with a click—the more strongly they believe in their chances of winning and in their ability to influence the outcome.

A near miss no longer feels purely random. It becomes the result of the player’s own actions: "I almost made it."

This illusion of control increases engagement, even though the player has no real influence over the outcome.