The Wall Street Journal found that Polymarket paid content creators to make videos featuring staged bets and winnings on clone websites. These videos were shared on social media and used as advertising for the platform.
The investigation covered dozens of videos and several bloggers, while the gap between the claimed and actual results turned out to be nearly fivefold.
The investigation covered dozens of videos and several bloggers, while the gap between the claimed and actual results turned out to be nearly fivefold.
Investigation
🔵 WSJ journalists reviewed more than 1,100 videos from 10 bloggers covering the period from December 2025 to May 2026
🔵 In 118 videos, the influencers' total claimed winnings amounted to $ 900,000
🔵 When these same bets were checked on the real platform, the actual total winnings amounted to around $ 166,000
Staging Mechanics
🔴 The videos were recorded on Polymarket clone websites, not on the real platform
🔴 Example: in January, student George Makihara posted a video claiming he had won $ 100,000 on a bet that Trump would publicly say the word "McDonald's" within a month
🔴 On the real Polymarket platform, more than 50 accounts placed this bet in January — and all of them lost
Collaboration Terms with Bloggers
🔵 Creators were paid $ 2,000−3,000 per month
🔵 Bloggers were required not to disclose their cooperation with the platform
🔵 Polymarket also worked separately with Virality, an agency specializing in native advertising and streamer integrations
Why It Works
🔴 The claimed $ 900,000 in winnings versus the actual $ 166,000 shows that the figures were inflated to make the stories more impressive
🔴 The story is built around a random event, such as Trump saying a specific phrase, rather than something requiring analysis — making it seem like anyone can win without expertise
🔴 The requirement not to disclose the collaboration meant that the audience perceived the video as authentic content, not sponsored advertising
Reaction to the Publication
🔵 The material about staged videos was published as an independent investigation by The Wall Street Journal
🔵 After WSJ’s inquiries, many creators hid videos featuring staged winnings
🔵 Polymarket removed the clone websites that had been used to record the staged content
Conclusion
The Polymarket case shows that marketing in prediction markets relies on the same techniques used by any gambling product — presenting rare big wins as the norm rather than the exception.
The mechanics of prediction markets are different, but big money, strong emotions, and the feeling that earning is easy remain effective marketing tools. Even in a niche positioned around "analytics," what works is not a breakdown of probabilities, but a story about random luck happening to an ordinary person.
🔵 WSJ journalists reviewed more than 1,100 videos from 10 bloggers covering the period from December 2025 to May 2026
🔵 In 118 videos, the influencers' total claimed winnings amounted to $ 900,000
🔵 When these same bets were checked on the real platform, the actual total winnings amounted to around $ 166,000
Staging Mechanics
🔴 The videos were recorded on Polymarket clone websites, not on the real platform
🔴 Example: in January, student George Makihara posted a video claiming he had won $ 100,000 on a bet that Trump would publicly say the word "McDonald's" within a month
🔴 On the real Polymarket platform, more than 50 accounts placed this bet in January — and all of them lost
Collaboration Terms with Bloggers
🔵 Creators were paid $ 2,000−3,000 per month
🔵 Bloggers were required not to disclose their cooperation with the platform
🔵 Polymarket also worked separately with Virality, an agency specializing in native advertising and streamer integrations
Why It Works
🔴 The claimed $ 900,000 in winnings versus the actual $ 166,000 shows that the figures were inflated to make the stories more impressive
🔴 The story is built around a random event, such as Trump saying a specific phrase, rather than something requiring analysis — making it seem like anyone can win without expertise
🔴 The requirement not to disclose the collaboration meant that the audience perceived the video as authentic content, not sponsored advertising
Reaction to the Publication
🔵 The material about staged videos was published as an independent investigation by The Wall Street Journal
🔵 After WSJ’s inquiries, many creators hid videos featuring staged winnings
🔵 Polymarket removed the clone websites that had been used to record the staged content
Conclusion
The Polymarket case shows that marketing in prediction markets relies on the same techniques used by any gambling product — presenting rare big wins as the norm rather than the exception.
The mechanics of prediction markets are different, but big money, strong emotions, and the feeling that earning is easy remain effective marketing tools. Even in a niche positioned around "analytics," what works is not a breakdown of probabilities, but a story about random luck happening to an ordinary person.