Prediction markets are growing faster than traditional sports betting. Their audience consists of financially literate, tech-savvy people aged 25−45 who place bets not for excitement, but to profit from accurate forecasting.
Who these people are, where they come from, and how they differ from traditional bettors are covered in this overview.
Who these people are, where they come from, and how they differ from traditional bettors are covered in this overview.
How the market works
🔵 Users trade with each other, not against a bookmaker
🔵 The trading instrument is a binary "yes/no" contract priced from $ 0 to $ 1, reflecting the probability of an event
🔵 A position can be closed before the event takes place, allowing users to lock in profit or limit losses
🔵 The operator earns a commission from each trade
🔵 Kalshi in 2025: $ 263.5 million in commission revenue on $ 22.9 billion in trading volume
🔵 82% of users traded under $ 10,000 in Q1 2026, with an average trade of around $ 35
Four audience segments
🔴 Crypto trader (24−38 years old): trades on decentralized exchanges and is used to high-speed markets. After platforms with unified accounts appeared, some of these users began combining crypto trading with prediction markets
🔴 Political and news analyst (28−55 years old): follows elections, central bank decisions, and geopolitics. Reads FT, Bloomberg, and Politico. Trades mainly from the US, the UK, Canada, and Australia
🔴 Drifting bettor (21−45 years old): comes from traditional sports betting, but is attracted by betting on politics and culture with the option to exit before the final outcome
🔴 Retail investor (25−45 years old): has a brokerage account, is active on financial Twitter/X, and uses prediction markets to bet on macro events such as inflation and interest rate decisions
🔴 Separately, young users (18−28 years old) bet on cultural events such as the Oscars and Eurovision. They generate high incoming traffic, but retention is low
Geography
🔵 North America is the largest market: retail investing, political culture, and crypto create stable demand
🔵 Western Europe has an audience, but most players remain in sports betting, while regulation differs significantly from country to country
🔵 Asia-Pacific has a strong culture of speculative betting, but direct access to prediction markets is restricted in many countries
🔵 Latin America has a young audience, high crypto penetration, and strong potential for prediction markets
🔵 Africa is still dominated by traditional betting. Growth through mobile payments and crypto exists, but remains slow
What this means for operators
🔴 Prediction markets are a tool for attracting a new audience and retaining existing users through event-based betting as a cross-sell
🔴 Targeting should be based not only on age and gender, but also on interests: men aged 25−34 who read financial media and follow news on Twitter/X
🔴 Demand for prediction markets exists globally, but in 2026−2027 the main focus should be on Tier 1 markets
Conclusion
A prediction market user tests their analysis rather than hopes to make money through luck. They want to feel right, competent, and better at understanding the world than others. Earning money from being "smarter than others" only reinforces this feeling and increases the desire to place another bet.
🔵 Users trade with each other, not against a bookmaker
🔵 The trading instrument is a binary "yes/no" contract priced from $ 0 to $ 1, reflecting the probability of an event
🔵 A position can be closed before the event takes place, allowing users to lock in profit or limit losses
🔵 The operator earns a commission from each trade
🔵 Kalshi in 2025: $ 263.5 million in commission revenue on $ 22.9 billion in trading volume
🔵 82% of users traded under $ 10,000 in Q1 2026, with an average trade of around $ 35
Four audience segments
🔴 Crypto trader (24−38 years old): trades on decentralized exchanges and is used to high-speed markets. After platforms with unified accounts appeared, some of these users began combining crypto trading with prediction markets
🔴 Political and news analyst (28−55 years old): follows elections, central bank decisions, and geopolitics. Reads FT, Bloomberg, and Politico. Trades mainly from the US, the UK, Canada, and Australia
🔴 Drifting bettor (21−45 years old): comes from traditional sports betting, but is attracted by betting on politics and culture with the option to exit before the final outcome
🔴 Retail investor (25−45 years old): has a brokerage account, is active on financial Twitter/X, and uses prediction markets to bet on macro events such as inflation and interest rate decisions
🔴 Separately, young users (18−28 years old) bet on cultural events such as the Oscars and Eurovision. They generate high incoming traffic, but retention is low
Geography
🔵 North America is the largest market: retail investing, political culture, and crypto create stable demand
🔵 Western Europe has an audience, but most players remain in sports betting, while regulation differs significantly from country to country
🔵 Asia-Pacific has a strong culture of speculative betting, but direct access to prediction markets is restricted in many countries
🔵 Latin America has a young audience, high crypto penetration, and strong potential for prediction markets
🔵 Africa is still dominated by traditional betting. Growth through mobile payments and crypto exists, but remains slow
What this means for operators
🔴 Prediction markets are a tool for attracting a new audience and retaining existing users through event-based betting as a cross-sell
🔴 Targeting should be based not only on age and gender, but also on interests: men aged 25−34 who read financial media and follow news on Twitter/X
🔴 Demand for prediction markets exists globally, but in 2026−2027 the main focus should be on Tier 1 markets
Conclusion
A prediction market user tests their analysis rather than hopes to make money through luck. They want to feel right, competent, and better at understanding the world than others. Earning money from being "smarter than others" only reinforces this feeling and increases the desire to place another bet.