Pepper Partners published an analysis of a 2024 Italian study on player behavior in slot games. 36 participants aged 18−20 placed bets of three different sizes and experienced various outcomes: win, loss, draw, and "near miss." The researchers tracked the size of the next bet, the time before the next spin, and heart rate variability.
Novice players: reaction to a win
🔵 Players with little experience were 38% more likely to place a larger bet after a win — compared to their behavior after a loss or a "near miss"
🔵 A win triggers a desire to take greater risks — especially in those who have not yet developed stable behavioral patterns
Experienced players: reaction to a "near miss"
🔴 Experienced participants were 44% more likely to place a larger bet after a "near miss" — compared to any other outcome
🔴 Researchers interpret this as a false sense of being close to a win — a pattern typical of regular players
Physiology: pulse and pause
🔵 After a win, players took the longest pause before the next spin — a phenomenon known as Post Reinforcement Pause
🔵 All participants showed a decrease in heart rate while waiting for the spin result
🔵 No difference was found in the time to the next spin between a "near miss" and a loss — the hypothesis that a "near miss" speeds up decision-making was not confirmed
What this means for operators
🔴 The type of outcome directly affects the player’s psychophysiology and behavior
🔴 Understanding these patterns enables the development of personalized engagement strategies
🔴 The data can be used to improve long-term retention and increase motivation for higher bets
Conclusion
Novice and experienced players increase their bets for different reasons, but both are driven by the same factor: dopamine anticipation. For novices, it is triggered by an actual win. For experienced players, this threshold shifts: the brain, conditioned by repeated gameplay cycles, becomes more responsive to the anticipation of a reward than to the reward itself.
🔵 Players with little experience were 38% more likely to place a larger bet after a win — compared to their behavior after a loss or a "near miss"
🔵 A win triggers a desire to take greater risks — especially in those who have not yet developed stable behavioral patterns
Experienced players: reaction to a "near miss"
🔴 Experienced participants were 44% more likely to place a larger bet after a "near miss" — compared to any other outcome
🔴 Researchers interpret this as a false sense of being close to a win — a pattern typical of regular players
Physiology: pulse and pause
🔵 After a win, players took the longest pause before the next spin — a phenomenon known as Post Reinforcement Pause
🔵 All participants showed a decrease in heart rate while waiting for the spin result
🔵 No difference was found in the time to the next spin between a "near miss" and a loss — the hypothesis that a "near miss" speeds up decision-making was not confirmed
What this means for operators
🔴 The type of outcome directly affects the player’s psychophysiology and behavior
🔴 Understanding these patterns enables the development of personalized engagement strategies
🔴 The data can be used to improve long-term retention and increase motivation for higher bets
Conclusion
Novice and experienced players increase their bets for different reasons, but both are driven by the same factor: dopamine anticipation. For novices, it is triggered by an actual win. For experienced players, this threshold shifts: the brain, conditioned by repeated gameplay cycles, becomes more responsive to the anticipation of a reward than to the reward itself.