Behavioral economics has long described the "last race effect": toward the end of a gaming session, players tend to place larger and riskier bets. Across various experiments, risk appetite increased on average by 28−43%.
Pepper Partners show that this moment can be predicted even before the final bet — through physiological signals.
Pepper Partners show that this moment can be predicted even before the final bet — through physiological signals.
The Last Bet Effect
🔵 At the end of a gaming session, risk-taking increases by roughly one-third
🔵 Players aim for an "emotionally intense finale"
🔵 Awareness that the session is about to end increases willingness to take risks
Pupil-Tracking Experiment
🔴 Players who knew the number of rounds showed 11−12% pupil dilation toward the end
🔴 In the group unaware of the round limit, pupils gradually constricted (declining engagement)
🔴 The control group showed wave-like dynamics with peaks in the middle and at the end
The pupil reacts before behavior — physiology precedes action.
What This Means for iGaming
🔵 The exit moment can be predicted in advance
🔵 The end of a session is the peak of emotional engagement
🔵 Retention mechanics are more effective if triggered before the final bet
🔵 Alternatively, creating a "positive ending" can increase the likelihood of return
Conclusion
Players rarely leave in a neutral state. The end of a session is an emotional tipping point where risk increases and physiology already signals the approaching exit.
For product teams, this is an opportunity either to extend the session or to manage the final impression — and therefore influence the probability of return.
🔵 At the end of a gaming session, risk-taking increases by roughly one-third
🔵 Players aim for an "emotionally intense finale"
🔵 Awareness that the session is about to end increases willingness to take risks
Pupil-Tracking Experiment
🔴 Players who knew the number of rounds showed 11−12% pupil dilation toward the end
🔴 In the group unaware of the round limit, pupils gradually constricted (declining engagement)
🔴 The control group showed wave-like dynamics with peaks in the middle and at the end
The pupil reacts before behavior — physiology precedes action.
What This Means for iGaming
🔵 The exit moment can be predicted in advance
🔵 The end of a session is the peak of emotional engagement
🔵 Retention mechanics are more effective if triggered before the final bet
🔵 Alternatively, creating a "positive ending" can increase the likelihood of return
Conclusion
Players rarely leave in a neutral state. The end of a session is an emotional tipping point where risk increases and physiology already signals the approaching exit.
For product teams, this is an opportunity either to extend the session or to manage the final impression — and therefore influence the probability of return.