iGaming Brand Analysis: Manifold

Manifold is a social prediction market platform where users bet on real-world events using a virtual currency called mana. The company was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, Manifold is not regulated. From September 2024 to March 2025, Manifold experimented with real-money markets using Sweepcash, a currency that could be redeemed for cash. The company later returned to mana-based markets.

What the Platform Offers

🔵 Yes/no bets on politics, sports, technology, culture, business, and personal events

🔵 1,000 mana for new users. Additional mana can be earned through predictions and tasks or purchased at a rate of $1 for 100 mana. Mana cannot be converted into real money

🔵 Multiple-choice questions, numerical predictions, and polls

🔵 Since April 2026, the platform has held prize draws in USDC. Users receive one free entry, while additional entries can be obtained using mana. In one draw, the winner received $9,000 from a $10,000 prize pool

🔵 The website is accessible from Russia, but users there cannot participate in prize draws. The same restriction applies to Australia and Germany, both of which rank among the platform’s top five traffic sources

Traffic and Engagement Metrics (September 2026)

🔴 321K visits – total traffic (-8.7% MoM)

🔴 2:40 min – average session duration

🔴 6.2 – pages per visit

🔴 35.1% – bounce rate

🔴 64% – mobile traffic share

Top 5 Countries

• 🇺🇸 United States – 35.8%
• 🇦🇺 Australia – 19.4%
• 🇨🇦 Canada – 6.4%
• 🇩🇪 Germany – 3.6%
• 🇧🇷 Brazil – 3.1%

Traffic Sources

🔵 Direct – 74%

🔵 Organic Search – 19%

🔵 Social – 3%

🔵 Display / Paid – 1%

🔵 Referrals – 3%

Markets on Almost Anything

🔴 Any user can create a market without requiring platform approval

🔴 Market outcomes are usually resolved by their creators. The platform intervenes if a resolution violates community guidelines

🔴 Creators with strong reputations receive positive feedback, gain followers, and attract more trading activity

🔴 Users create markets about their personal lives, such as whether someone will finish reading War and Peace within a year or remain in Montreal after September

Community and the Manifest Conference

🔵 The user base includes forecasting enthusiasts, researchers, and members of the effective altruism movement, which focuses on finding the most effective ways to help others

🔵 Since 2023, the company has hosted its own forecasting conference, Manifest, in Berkeley. The 2026 edition took place in June

🔵 Attendees have included Nate Silver, known for his US election forecasts, economist Robin Hanson, and Shane Coplan and Tarek Mansour, the founders of Polymarket and Kalshi, respectively

Conclusion

By using virtual currency, Manifold can host prediction markets on virtually any question, including personal matters. Market outcomes are determined by their creators, which could create an incentive to manipulate results in their own favor if real money were involved. Since mana cannot be cashed out, users compete for reputation instead: the real reward is proving themselves right in front of others.